NFCI金融状况指数：你的金融危机预警雷达
NFCI就像金融市场的体温计，当它从负值转正时，就是市场开始"发烧"的信号。历史上几次大危机前，这个指标都提前发出了警告。
crash alert
🚨 Buffett Indicator Hits Record 217%: The Ultimate Warning Beyond All Bubbles
The Market Cap to GDP ratio hits 217%, far exceeding the 2000 dot-com bubble peak of 159%. Buffett considers 120% overvalued - we're now at nearly 3x normal levels! History shows every time it exceeded 130%, a 40-60% crash followed.
🚨 巴菲特指标创历史新高217%：超越所有泡沫的终极警告
股市市值/GDP比率达到217%，远超2000年互联网泡沫时期的159%。巴菲特认为120%就是高估，现在已经是正常值的近3倍！历史告诉我们，每次超过130%后都发生了40-60%的崩盘。
The Pattern That Nobody Talks About: Why This Time Really Isn't Different
The Stock Market Capitalization to M2 Money Supply ratio has reached 3.0 - the exact level that preceded the 1929 crash and 2000 dot-com collapse. History shows this ratio peaks between 3.0-3.4 before major market crashes.
High Yield Credit Spreads Hit Historic Lows: Market Complacency or Calm Before the Storm?
US high yield credit spreads have dropped to just 2.88%, a level 87% lower than the 2008 financial crisis peak. This extreme compression signals dangerous market complacency and potential systemic risks ahead.
高收益债券信用利差监控：当前2.88%的水平释放了什么信号？
美国高收益债券信用利差降至2.88%，创近年新低。历史数据显示，这一水平可能预示着重大市场风险。2008年金融危机前利差同样处于低位，随后飙升至21.82%。投资者应警惕当前的过度乐观情绪。
大周期下的投资策略：如何在秩序转换期把握机遇
将达里奥的大周期理论应用于当前市场，深度解析三大危险信号：货币政策困境、社会撕裂加剧、大国权力转移。详解长线投资者如何通过宏观数据判断入场和离场时机，制定应对秩序转换期的实战策略。在历史转折点前，保持清醒、把握机遇、规避风险的完整投资框架。