NFCI就像金融市场的体温计，当它从负值转正时，就是市场开始"发烧"的信号。历史上几次大危机前，这个指标都提前发出了警告。...
宏观数据
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股市市值/GDP比率达到217%，远超2000年互联网泡沫时期的159%。巴菲特认为120%就是高估，现在已经是正常值的近3倍！历史告诉我们，每次超过130%后都发生了40-60%的崩盘。...
美国高收益债券信用利差降至2.88%，创近年新低。历史数据显示，这一水平可能预示着重大市场风险。2008年金融危机前利差同样处于低位，随后飙升至21.82%。投资者应警惕当前的过度乐观情绪。...
Deep analysis of M2 money velocity's decline from 1997's historical peak of 2.19 to 2025's 1.39, revealing hidden economic structural changes and investment insights behind the data....
深度解析M2货币流通速度从1997年历史高点2.19到2025年1.39的下降趋势，揭示隐藏在数据背后的经济结构变化和投资启示。...
The VIX Fear Index serves as a thermometer for market sentiment. Current level of 16.37 shows relatively calm markets, but looking back at historical data from the 2008 financial crisis (peak 80.86) and 2020 pandemic (peak 82.69), we learn important investment lessons: panic often creates opportuni...