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risk warning

The Final Stage: How Shiller PE and Consumer Sentiment Signal the Coming Economic Collapse

Through analysis of Shiller PE ratio and consumer sentiment historical data, this article reveals the systemic risks facing our current economic system. Data from 1960 to present shows we're in a dangerous stage similar to the periods before the crashes of 1929, 2000, and 2008.

The Dangerous Divergence: When Stock Market Euphoria Meets Consumer Despair

For the first time in 30 years, a stunning divergence: stock valuations near all-time highs while consumer confidence plunges to 2008 financial crisis levels. What do these two diverging curves predict? The warning signs from 1929's Great Depression are reappearing.

Will the AI Boom Repeat the Telecom Bubble of 25 Years Ago?

Deep comparison between the 2000 telecom bubble and today's AI boom reveals three dangerous similarities: excessive optimism, circular financing, and customer concentration. AI must reach automotive industry scale to justify current investments. History shows: technological revolutions and bubbles

When Seven Giants Equal All The World's Dollars: An Impending Liquidity Crisis?

The Magnificent Seven's combined market cap now nearly equals the entire global M2 money supply. This astonishing data point conceals enormous liquidity risks. History shows us that every time such extreme valuations appear, market corrections are brutal.

Bank Lending Standards Tightening: The Leading Indicator of Economic Storms

A deep dive into the bank lending tightening indicator (DRTSCILM), analyzing its role as an economic recession warning signal through historical data comparisons, helping ordinary investors understand and respond to potential financial risks.

DRTSCLCC Credit Card Lending Tightening Indicator: When Banks Don't Want to Lend to You

DRTSCLCC measures the percentage of banks tightening credit card lending standards. Historical data shows it reached 66.7% during the 2008 financial crisis and hit a record 71.7% during the 2020 pandemic. Currently at 10.4%, it indicates moderate tightening worth monitoring but not yet at dangerous

【Inflation Alert】US CPI Falls to 3%: Soft Landing Success or Calm Before the Storm?

US CPI YoY growth at 3.02% in September 2025, significantly down from 2022 peak but still above Fed's 2% target. Historical experience shows inflation rebounding before reaching target often signals greater turbulence ahead. This article provides deep analysis of inflation data, comparing with hist

Tech's "Prosperity Depression": The Employment Crisis Behind the GPU Investment Boom

Behind Amazon's 30,000 layoffs lies a zero-sum game between GPU investment and human capital. As enterprise AI adoption approaches the critical 50% threshold, are we replaying the 2000 internet bubble?

Financial Storm Warning System: Deep Dive into St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4)

The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is like a "blood pressure monitor" for financial markets, helping us detect early signs of financial crises.

NFCI Financial Conditions Index: Your Financial Crisis Early Warning Radar

NFCI is like a thermometer for financial markets. When it turns from negative to positive, it's a signal that markets are starting to "run a fever." This indicator has provided early warnings before every major crisis in history.